2012年2月22日星期三

The hope is for a sustained economic recovery

Michigan can take plenty of comfort from the remarkable stock gains we've seen so far in 2012 for its automakers and other home-grown companies.Burberry bags, burberry ties, burberry watches cheap on sale. But nobody really can ignore the sizzle of seeing the Dow cross 13,000 -- even if only briefly -- on Tuesday. Let's face it: it wasn't all that long ago when investors broke into a nervous, uncomfortable sweat when talking about stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed the 13,000 mark on Tuesday for the first time in nearly four years. The average closed at 12,965.69 points -- up 15.82 points. The financial crisis in 2008-09 and ensuing recession whacked 401(k) plans hard -- thanks to the meltdown in stocks. The Dow fell as low as 6,547 points on March 9, 2009. And a Dow 13,000 would mean stocks have almost doubled in nearly three years. The last time the Dow closed above 13,000 was on May 19, 2008. So far, the first two months of 2012 have proven to be far more upbeat than most experts projected late last year. The Dow had been trading above 12,000 last year and closed at 12,217.56 on Dec. 30. The Dow's gain between the year-end close and closing at the 13,000 mark would be roughly 6.4%. It's the kind of gain some market watchers expected for burberry bags the entire year in 2012 -- not just a couple of months. So investors might want to avoid getting too giddy here. It's been quite a run-up in a short time. What's driving stocks higher? David Sowerby, portfolio manager for Loomis, Sayles in Bloomfield Hills, said we're seeing some modest news that the U.S. economy is gaining ground -- and we're benefiting from low interest rates and more availability of credit for consumers and business. Last year, the big drops for the Dow gave investors more reason to be skittish. We saw far more volatility with up and down days in 2011. But Sowerby noted that so far this year more than 70% of the trading days have posted gains -- giving more consistency to the market gains. Auto stocks and many Michigan-based stocks have done far better than the Standard & Poor's 500. Sowerby noted that his Michigan stock index is up 12% so far this year -- compared with a gain of 8% for the S&P 500 index through Friday. General Motors stock is up about 35% since year-end and closed at $27.06 a share Tuesday, down 28 cents. PulteGroup is up more than 36% since year-end and closed at $8.59 a share, down 32 cents. Sowerby noted that Pulte is up 143% since Oct. 3 stock market lows last year and it has been the No. 1 stock in the S&P 500 in that period through Tuesday.Burberry sunglasses, burberry scarves, burberry shoes 2012 outlet. Ford gained 16.9% since year-end and closed at $12.53 a share on Tuesday, down 22 cents. "You've seen a lot of last year's losers become this year's winners," Sowerby said. For local investors, that's good news for many retirement plans, which continue to invest in auto stocks. Christopher Ruth, chief market strategist for Comerica Asset Management Group in Birmingham, said a much-anticipated bailout deal for Greece, combined with Chinese monetary easing, gave stocks a boost Tuesday. He noted that the stock market had priced in a very negative view of Europe last summer and last fall. And there were growing concerns that the U.S. recovery was too fragile. As a result, stocks became very cheap and today's prices are in a more normal range from a historical valuation perspective, he said. The hope is for a sustained economic recovery in the U.S. and the avoidance of a financial crisis in Europe. Are we out of the woods? Hard to say. Many market watchers remain uncertain about the outlook in Europe. Others worry about the strength of the U.S. recovery. The threat of higher gasoline prices at the pump now -- and possibly later this year -- increases worries about the potential hit on pocketbooks and on the U.S. economy overall. "Dramatically higher oil prices could cause a www.buymyfavorite.com global economic slowdown," Ruth said. He noted that uncertainty relating to the presidential election could weigh on the markets as we get closer to November, too.

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