2012年4月10日星期二

Reflecting the difficulties in doing business with Tehran

Small-business owners' confidence in the burberry handbags recovery dropped sharply in March, hitting the lowest levels since November, in one of the first signs that high gasoline prices may cut into the economic recovery. Confidence fell 1.8 points to 92.5 on the monthly index published by the National Federation of Independent Business, the lobbying group said Tuesday. Nine of the 10 indicators the federation tracks dropped, with businesses showing less confidence about everything from credit conditions to hiring plans. More entrepreneurs also expect to raise prices, in what the group called a sign of the impact of energy bills. Economists expected the NFIB report to be weak, but not as poor as it was, economist Leslie Levesque of consulting firm IHS Global said. The report is consistent with the idea that the economy's growth slowed in the first quarter from its 3% pace in the final three month's of last year. "It's almost like déjà vu all over again,'' said economist Ryan Sweet at Moody's Analytics, referring to how the 2011 economy slowed after optimism heading into the year. "We're going to experience the same thing but not as severe.'' Small business owners expect sales to rise in coming months, but by a wide margin believe prospects for their profits are worse, the NFIB reported. The sales gain reported for the last three months was actually the best since 2007, and the percentage of respondents who expect sales to keep rising jumped by 1 percentage point from February to 42%, before seasonal adjustments. Answers to questions about hiring also painted a Ray ban sunglasses mixed picture. Small business hiring in March was the best in 13 months, the federation said. But fewer business owners plan to hire in the future: The same percentages plan to add staff as reduce staff, down from a 4% edge for firms that planned to hire in last month's survey. "Small businesses expect lower sales, higher costs, and feel pressure to increase their prices,'' Levesque wrote in a report. "They are feeling squeezed. Under these conditions it is no surprise they do not feel like going on a hiring spree anytime soon.'' The decline in small-business confidence may not last long if upcoming economic news is solid, Barclays Capital economist Cooper Hawes said. The NFIB survey has shown confidence declining in March every year since 2003, Sweet added. Japanese trading houses are reducing Iranian crude imports from April, industry sources said on Tuesday, joining the country's refiners in deepening cuts even after the United States said Japan had done enough to support sanctions against Iran. The U.S. and European Union have tightened cheap louis vuitton shoes for women measures aimed at reducing Iran's oil trade, stemming the flow of petrodollars to Tehran and forcing the Islamic Republic to halt a nuclear program the West suspects is intended to produce weapons. Between them, Japan's trading houses and refiners Oakley sunglasses will reduce Iranian crude imports by about 60,000 barrels per day (bpd) in April, industry sources said. The reduction is the equivalent to about 18.5 percent of the 322,900 bpd that Japan imported in the first two months of the year, according to the latest government data available. Some of Japan's trading companies, like some of its refiners, let annual import contracts with Iran lapse at the end of March, industry sources said. The sources declined to be identified as they are not authorised to talk to the media. The cuts come even after the United States in March exempted Japan and 10 other EU nations from sanctions due to take effect in July because they have significantly cut purchases of Iranian oil. Soon after receiving the exemption, Finance Minister Jun Azumi said Japan would continue to cut imports of Iranian oil. Japan's imports of 322,900 bpd in January and February were already down 28 percent on the first two months of 2011, according to data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The U.S. has pointed to Japan as an example for other Iranian crude buyers as the country reduced purchases even though it needed more oil burberry watches overall to help meet rising domestic demand after the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster in March 2011. World oil prices have surged this year on concern the sanctions will disrupt Iran's supplies and tighten global markets. Benchmark Brent crude traded just below $122 a barrel on Tuesday, up over 13 percent to date this year. Japan should have little problem sourcing alternative oil supplies in April, typically the period of weakest demand globally after the Northern Hemisphere winter ends. But later in the year, as the markets get tighter, it may have to pay more to substitute for the Iranian barrels, said Victor Shum, senior partner at oil consultancy Purvin & Gertz. "A reduction in Iranian crude sales may not have much of burberry ties an impact on the market in the second quarter as demand usually ebbs after winter and many refineries undertake maintenance," Shum said. "But things would be different once summer starts and demand recovers." Japan's demand for crude to generate electricity will rise this summer as the country faces a complete shutdown of its nuclear power plants due to public safety concerns after last year's nuclear disaster. CUTS Japan's trading houses are reducing imports by at least 20,000 barrels per day from April, industry sources said. Mitsubishi Corp. has allowed a contract to import around 15,000 bpd to lapse, sources said. The deal was due for renewal from April, they Burberry keychain added. Mitsubishi declined to comment on the volumes or status of its contract. Toyota Tsusho Corp. has failed to renew a contract for 5,000 bpd, sources said. Toyota Tsusho sold that crude into Showa Shell Sekiyo KK and JX Nippon Oil & Energy Corp , industry sources said. Toyota Tsusho declined to comment. Japanese refiners and traders have been reducing imports from Iran for several years, due to concerns about security of supply from the Islamic Republic amid tensions over its nuclear programme. Most other trading houses that were buyers of Iranian crude stopped purchases in the previous fiscal year that began April 1, 2011, sources said. Itochu Corp. has imported no crude from Iran since before the financial year that started in April 2011, a company spokesman said. Itochu previously held a 5,000 bpd contract and sold the crude on to refiner Cosmo Oil Co.. Roberto Cavalli sunglasses 2012, cheap roberto cavalli sunglasses sale. Mitsui & Co. Ltd. halted imports in January 2012 and no longer has a term contract, a spokeswoman said. Industry sources said Mitsui previously bought 10,000 bpd. Kanematsu Corp. stopped buying Iranian in 2010 or earlier, and a company spokeswoman said the company has no Iranian oil contract. Marubeni Corp. has a term contract for about 10,000 bpd that was up for renewal this month, but the company declined to comment on this deal. Those that plan to continue importing Iranian crude face difficulties finding shipping, insurance and banks to clear payments due to sanctions. Reflecting the difficulties in doing business with Tehran, Japanese refiners have secured a clause in annual contracts that exempts them from incurring a penalty if international sanctions prevent crude buyers from taking delivery of Iranian oil. The force majeure clause would exempt Japan's refiners from liability if they were unable to import crude due to the increasingly stringent sanctions. The clause is usually limited to exempting buyers and sellers from liability due to fires, accidents and natural calamities.

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