2011年12月19日星期一

Chang Song Taek is a very savvy operator

The young Kim's grip on power, however, may be shakier than the committee wants its people to believe, experts say. Despite Kim Jong Il's clear anointing of his 20-something son three years ago, North Korea may become embroiled in a violent power struggle, Cato Institute senior fellow Doug Bandow said. The son "has had little time to establish himself," he said. "There are several potential claimants to supreme authority moncler jackets in the North, and the military may play kingmaker." Christopher Hill, former U.S. ambassador to South Korea, said Kim Jong Il did not do enough to secure his son's position. Kim Jon Il's father, Kim Il Sung, spent two decades grooming him for leadership and preparing the country for the shift in power, said Hill, who was chief negotiator for the United States in talks on North Korea's nuclear program. "Kim Jong Il has done that for about a year-and-a-half" with his son, Hill said. "The North Korean public hardly knows the guy." The younger Kim spent some of his youth at the International School of Berne and completed his education at Kim Il Sung Military University. A former personal chef to Kim Jong Il who wrote a book about the family under a pseudonym calls Kim Jong Un "a chip off the old block" who resembles his father physically and in demeanor. As Kim Jong Il became increasingly unwell, he took steps to position his youngest son, born to his third wife in either January 1983 or 1984, to seize power. By late 2009, North Korean contacts told U.S. diplomats in Seoul that Kim Jong Il had sent money to beautify and modernize the port city of Wonsan, Kim Jong Un's possible birthplace. Wonsan "needs to become a great village before he takes power," a U.S. diplomat wrote in a confidential cable published by the group WikiLeaks. His father promoted him to the Workers' Party cheap moncler jackets finder Central Committee, North Korea's governing Cabinet, at a party convention in September 2010. Soon after, his father elevated him to the rank of general in the army, according to Global Security. Kim Jong Un began accompanying his father on ribbon-cuttings and official visits. Thursday, the pair visited a music center and opened a new department store, the country's official news agency reported. "Under the leadership of Kim Jong Un, we should turn our sorrow into strength and courage and overcome the present difficulties and work harder for fresh, great victory of the Juche revolution," an announcement from the news agency said. "All the party members, servicepersons and people should remain loyal to the guidance of respected Kim Jong Un and firmly protect and further cement the single-minded unity of the party, the army and the people." Military leaders will surround the son, including the high-profile adviser Chang Song Taek, Kim Jong Il's brother-in-law and the vice chairman of the powerful National Defense Commission, Hill said. It is unclear how the military will behave as power shifts, he said. "Chang Song Taek is a very savvy operator, and there will be some efforts from him to help ease Kim Jong Un's hands on the reins," Hill said. Hill never met Kim Jong Un but said Chinese officials who have met the son were unimpressed with his preparation for leadership. "That said, he's at least been overseas. He's flown in an airplane or two, and may have a greater worldview than his father or grandfather," Hill said. "But I don't think there's a whole lot of evidence to support an optimistic view on the guy." Until Kim Jong Un's position is secure,moncler jackets for women the nuclear talks are unlikely to resume, Hill said. If Kim Jong Un can hold power, experts expect little change in the country's policies. "It appears unlikely that he will be a transformative figure for the country," said Sarah McDowell, a senior analyst and Asia-Pacific desk head for IHS, a global information company.

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